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You’ve made your NCAA tournament men’s bracket selections — hopefully, using the Perfect Bracket. You’ve found the best upsets, analyzed the best bets to win it all and eliminated the vulnerable teams. Now all that is left to do is pick the tiebreaker, which is almost always the total number of points scored in the championship game. You could wing it — pick two numbers out of thin air and hope for the best — or follow our advice and focus your energy on more enterprising tasks.

Since 1985, when the men’s tournament expanded to 64 teams, the national title game has averaged 143 total points when decided in regulation. The four overtime games in that span averaged 157 total points. The most total points scored in regulation was in 1990, when UNLV beat Duke, 103-73 (176). The fewest total points came in 2011, when Connecticut beat Butler, 53-41 (94), the same year the tournament expanded to 68 teams. Last year’s final between Gonzaga and Baylor ended with 156 points, the most in regulation since 2013. Our guide would have recommended a tiebreaker pick of 162, which is awfully close.

How many points you choose should be determined by the teams you have in the final. Matchups between two No. 1 seeds, of which there have been eight (with one going to overtime), have averaged 146 points with a range between 131 and 159. Matchups between a No. 1 and No. 2 seed (eight games) in the final game have averaged a similar 149 points.

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But every team plays at a different pace, and tempo plays a huge role in the final outcome. A team like No. 1 seed Gonzaga (West), which averages 73 possessions per 40 minutes, plays significantly faster than No. 2 seed Villanova (South), which averages 64 possessions per 40 minutes. Gonzaga is about 33 points per 100 possessions better than an average opponent, per analyst Ken Pomeroy’s ratings, and Villanova is 24 points better. That all projects to a final score of 88-78 in Gonzaga’s favor if those two teams met on a neutral court.

The perfect bracket to win your March Madness men’s pool

If, on the other hand, Gonzaga were to face Arizona (27 points per 100 possessions better than an average opponent, 73 possessions per 40 minutes) in the final, we could expect a score of 92-86 in Gonzaga’s favor. That’s a difference of 12 points, depending only on Gonzaga’s opponent.

If we limit our potential national title finalists to the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 seeds — those seeds have accounted for 60 of 72 spots in the national title game since 1985 — here are the projected total points scored in each matchup on a neutral court.

The women’s side is affected by the same factors. Since 1994, when the women’s tournament expanded to 64 teams, the average title game has seen 132 points scored, with a high of 168 and a low of 100. However, the pace of play is more consistent among the top women’s teams than it is on the men’s side. We can focus on the top seeds because no seed worse than No. 3 has won the women’s tournament since the field expanded.

Of the 12 teams seeded Nos. 1 2 or 3, eight average between 69 and 71 possessions per game, and only one (Iowa) pushes the pace beyond 75 possessions. Here’s the average number of points we would expect each team to score in the championship game. Just pick the two teams you have in the final and add up their scores, and you have your tiebreaker.

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